Public transportation services in India’s small cities have been impaired with various inefficiencies (TERI, 2020) even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. For a long time, developments in the public transportation sector were mainly oriented towards the major metropolitan cities. Various other factors such as women’s safety concerns, lack of last-mile connectivity and poor infrastructure have also deterred many from availing public transit.

The pandemic has put public transportation systems across the country on hold, and increased the demand for private vehicles (PVs) for those who can afford them and for Non Motorised Transport (NMTs) across income groups. The current need for less crowded modes of transport to facilitate social distancing and reduce the risk of virus transmission, coupled with better financing options, has further encouraged this trend.

The consequent changes in the mobility and transportation landscape have been analysed in various studies, right from the time India went into lockdown in March 2020. Many of them offer suggestions to re-mould the mobility space in the post-COVID world. Some of the key inferences based on these studies are analysed below.

Mobility for Worktrips

Different studies have used wide-ranging survey samples from varied cities with regards to the changes in mobility behaviour, but some similar trends can be identified. With most people shifting to Work-From-Home (WFH) mode, trips for the purpose of work have drastically reduced across most of the modes of transport.

In the early stages of the pandemic, modes that offered low social distancing opportunities for work-based travel took a major hit. For instance, modes like public transport, shared vehicles (SVs) and on-demand private vehicles or ODPV (auto-rickshaws, taxis) witnessed significant drops (Bhaduri et al., 2020). Trip share for PVs for the purpose of work-based activities also declined. This can be explained due to PV users shifting to WFH modes.

It was observed that as India gradually went into the unlock mode, people were still giving their work-day commute a miss. In fact, weekend travel showed a better recovery, illustrating how more people opted to leave their homes for discretionary activities rather than for work.

Mobility for non-work trips and and use of NMT

For discretionary activities (leisure, shopping, etc.), the trip share of SVs and ODPVs witnessed a similar decline (Bhaduri et al., 2020). Moreover, there was an increase in the share of NMTs for the purposes of non-work based travel. In fact, during the pandemic, NMT appeared to be the most preferred alternative to all other modes, followed by preference for WFH.

However, unlike the overall increase in the share of NMTs in some other countries (Roychowdhury et al., 2020) since the emergence of COVID-19 (irrespective of travel for work based or discretionary activities), the pattern in India was not quite the same (Bhaduri et al., 2020). The usage of NMT in the early days of COVID showed an increase for the purpose of discretionary activities (Borawake et al., 2020), but a widespread adoption of NMT modes was missing. This can be explained by the lack of planned NMT infrastructure, disorderly movement of pedestrians and high crowding levels. Moreover, due to people shifting to WFH, the number of commutes declined, leading to a fall in the overall usage of NMT (Barbieri et al., 2021) (Bhaduri et al., 2020).

Shift between modes and travel inertia

Pre-COVID users of NMT showed higher inertia (or tendency to stick to their previously preferred mode of transport) when it came to shifting to other modes of travel. This was especially true for trips of shorter distances. The inertia was lower for longer distances, with private vehicles usage being higher for these trips. The study by Bhaduri et al., 2020 postulates that the reason for the former might be that NMT modes offer exercise in the form of short distance non-discretionary trips, while the increased risk of infection due to crowding deters their usage for longer distances.

A similar analysis can be drawn from a study based in Bangladesh (Anwari et al., 2021), where there was full inertia for pedestrian modes in the case of discretionary trips. For work trips, there is a strong tendency to switch to private vehicles and Non-Motorised Vehicles (NMVs) from other modes during COVID-19.

The role of gender in transport mode preferences

The effect of the pandemic on the mobility preferences of women was found to be very significant. Women showed a slightly greater tendency to shift to WFH, and larger decreases in both work related and discretionary trips, as compared to men (Bhaduri et al, 2020). This comes in contrast to women having a greater share of pre-COVID discretionary trips (such as trips made to markets) - than men. Another study (TERI, 2020) showed an expected drop from 50% to 34% in usage of metro in Delhi NCR by women.

Apart from this, there was an expected increase of 9% for personal car usage in the case of women, along with an increase in auto rickshaws and taxis usage (Teri, 2020). Similarly, for women commuters in Bangalore and Kolkata, there was an increase in the modal share of intermediate public transport and car usage, respectively (TERI, 2020). Men still represented a greater share of car ridership, both pre and post-pandemic (Bhaduri et al., 2020).

The role of income in transport mode preferences

There was a noticeable role that was played by income levels in determining the mobility preferences of people as well. As per the study by Bhaduri, increase in the level of household income was noticed to be directly proportional to an increase in the shift to WFH measures (Bhaduri et al, 2020). The primary reasons for this are thought to be a greater availability of WFH opportunities and private vehicle ownerships for higher income groups. Commuters, both in the higher and lower-income groups, shifted to private vehicles, with the latter showing a preference for two-wheelers (Roychowdhury et al., 2020).

Reduction in discretionary trips also has been comparable across income groups (Bhaduri et al., 2020). Under the pandemic, there was a reduced tendency of affluent individuals to use cars for discretionary activities. The possible reasons for this can be the fulfilment of such activities either through online platforms or by travelling shorter distances within the neighbourhood. Overall, studies have shown an increased willingness of people to shift to NMT irrespective of their income (TERI, 2020).

Emerging trends of transport preferences in a post-COVID scenario

Modal Shift from Public Transport

It is important to reiterate that during the pandemic, people’s purpose for travel greatly determined their modal preference. Modes that offered less opportunities for social distancing witnessed a fall in their share. There has been a sizeable shift from the usage of public transport services like, bus, metro, etc towards other modes of transports. Apart from concerns about social distancing, this shift is also due to restrictions on public transit services by authorities.

Interestingly, as per some of the studies, people have indicated that they would prefer to continue using intermediate transport options (auto rickshaws, taxi, etc.), NMT modes, and private vehicles, in a post-covid world (TERI, 2020). The intention of commuters to use personal vehicles has increased across many cities which, expectedly, can lead to an increased demand for entry-level cars, two-wheelers or used vehicles, post-COVID (KPMG, 2020).

Usage of NMT

Studies have shown that in the long term, the mobility pattern during COVID signal positive signs for NMT, with an increase in preference for walking and cycling as compared to pre-covid times (Roychowdhury et al., 2020). Across different age and income groups, people displayed a willingness to shift to NMT, thereby suggesting that there is a lot of scope for it to become an important mode for transport for short distances.(TERI, 2020).

Despite Indian cities not being very bicycle friendly, there has been a boom in bicycle sales during the pandemic. Hoards of people have resorted to cycling as a way to include some activity in their life under the pandemic. Various cycling groups across multiple Indian cities have organised group rides. It is also noted that in Indian cities, many viewed cycling as a “poor person’s” mode of transport, but as evidence shows, this perception is changing.. These signs should provide the impetus to governments at different levels to amp up the NMT infrastructure in India’s urban areas.

Policy Response

Considering the significance of NMT during the pandemic, and the great potential for its infrastructural development in India, several policy measures have been undertaken. These include calls to make walking safer and easier, given that around 40% of road accidents in India involve pedestrians. Towards this, authorities have taken some positive steps. A National Road Safety Board is being set up that would provide suggestions to the government on how to make roads safer.

We saw more localised examples where some concrete steps have been taken to promote NMT in cities. Church Street, a major commercial hub in Bangalore, has been made pedestrian-only on weekends, with plans to expand this to other locations in the city. In Kolkata, the jurisdiction of the cyclists has been increased, and in New Town - a planned suburb - cycling bays and app-based cycle renting have been introduced, and buildings now have to provide dedicated cycle parking space. Greater Chennai Corporation, which had introduced the NMT policy way back in 2014, has made more cycles available in the city, and an innovative pilot where people can rent cycles for longer periods of time.

Preference for Private Vehicles

Despite these measures to encourage people to use NMT, studies point at the fact that the immediate need for safe mobility with greater social distancing is likely to shift the preference of people towards private vehicles in the short run. However, factors like, affordability of cars for public transport users, will be a constraint in the long run (KPMG, 2020).

Keeping in mind economic constraints owing to pandemic related salary cuts and financial losses, some data also points at consumers postponing their purchase of new vehicles (Grant Thornton in India & SIAM, 2020). However, a study conducted by the Centre for Public Policy Research during the early stages of the pandemic in June 2020, estimated that there would be a 13% increase in the number of cars post-lockdown (Mukundan et al., 2020).

The aforementioned preference for private vehicles has far-reaching consequences in the densely populated Indian cities. Metropolitan areas like Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, with their pre-existing high motorization rates, face issues related to pollution owing to vehicular emissions as well as massive traffic congestions on their oversaturated roads. In 2018, Bangalore recorded a 14% increase in the growth rate of vehicle registration, Delhi witnessed an 11% and Mumbai, 9.9%. Smaller cities like Kochi and Bhopal have also recorded very high growth rates of 26.5% and 15%. These trends point at an unsustainable pattern of travel that had already existed before the pandemic. Thus, an increase in private vehicles post-COVID will worsen the situation and cause a consequential setback to India’s plans for sustainable transport (TERI, 2020).

Avenues for Further Research

In the studies we examined about the impact of COVID on public transport, the majority of the studies focussed on the impact on metropolitan cities. It would be interesting to look at whether any changes have taken place in smaller cities and if so, what are these changes to understand. The studies above have shown three major trends: a projected rise in use of private vehicles and decrease in public transport usage, as well as potential increase in adoption of NMT modes.

There is also a great scope to understand how gender affects mobility preference with respect to NMT, during the pandemic. We need complementary studies from small and medium sized cities to verify these trends in local contexts and add to the evidence for more informed urban mobility policies.

Photo by Giuliano Gabella on Unsplash

This piece is part of the Small City Mobility Series of the Nagrikal. Nagrikal is a platform for citizens from small cities to share their experiences so that they be channeled into policies.