Sinking Shorelines

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As seas slowly inch higher, India’s smaller coastal cities face a growing threat of submergence yet remain off the radar of mainstream climate conversations. In Nāgrika’s Climate Change Series, Part 3 reveals the overlooked risks, data gaps, and policy blind spots that could leave hundreds of communities at risk of an advancing shoreline.

Report Summary & Key Insights:

Accelerated Sea Level Rise:

• Climate change, primarily driven by human activity, is accelerating the sea level rise globally. In December 2023, the sea level was 104 mm above 1993’s measure, which reveals the unprecedented rate at which the sea level is currently rising.

  
  

• This is the result of a two-way effect, attributed to both the thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers. In recent decades, the latter has become a more dominant contributor.

Impact on India’s Smaller Coastal Cities:

• Sea level rise poses significant threats like erosion, flooding, and groundwater contamination in coastal cities worldwide, along with the loss of vegetation and aquatic life. India’s coastal cities, particularly smaller and midsized ones like Kochi and Visakhapatnam, face imminent risks of inundation and infrastructure damage.

  
  

• There are around 113 Indian cities spread across nine states that are at risk of getting submerged due to sea level rise by 2050. This report highlights that out of these, 109 are small and midsized coastal cities!

  
  

• Most of the vulnerable cities are located in Gujarat and Kerala, where coastal erosion is occurring at a high rate. In India, rural areas situated near the coastline are also at risk of getting submerged.

Increasing Extreme Weather Events:

• Rising sea levels contribute to the intensification of extreme weather events like cyclonic storms. Our report points out how such events are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity, exacerbating the vulnerabilities of coastal communities.

It is projected that, with the current trends, the heating of the Indian Ocean is likely to increase 4 to 8 times more by 2100! Therefore, category 4 or 5 storms may become relatively more common in the future for India’s coastal cities.

Data Monitoring and Policy Responses:

Collecting and maintaining sea level rise data is a complex process compared to monitoring air quality and temperature data. Continuous data availability for several decades is a necessity in this case.

• While tide gauges and satellite altimeters provide valuable data, there are challenges in terms of functionality and coverage. Furthermore, real-time data on sea level is currently available only for 29 small and midsized cities. This is concerning, as our research reveals that there are 109  small and midsized cities at risk of submergence.

  
  

• This report also highlights the knowledge gaps that exist in research regarding sea level rise, with the majority of it focusing on Mumbai.

  
  

• India has been implementing the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan to manage coastal areas through participatory initiatives at various organisational levels. However, this report highlights the need for studies at the regional and local level, along with coastal regulations that cannot be easily compromised upon.

Click on the link below to read the report.